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Recent U.S. Iraq policy has moved from toppling a genocidal autocrat to seeking to create a pluralist, prosperous Arab democracy and inducing neighboring regimes to replicate it. The mainstream media discuss what this might mean for the region at large, but what about for Christians in the Middle East? What does this policy portend for them? If one were to perform a risk analysis for churches as one does for corporations—something I do for a living—what would be the inherent risks for churches, particularly evangelical churches, in the Middle East at this time?

Evangelicals in the Middle East are primarily the legacy of American Presbyterian missionary efforts in the 19th century. They are clustered in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, the Palestinian areas, and Egypt. In Cairo's Shubra district alone, 40 congregations meet, in addition to Kasr Dubara in the heart of downtown, which is the largest evangelical church in the Arab world, and one of the largest in Africa. Its Sunday evening worship service packs two thousand believers. Alexandria, on the Mediterranean coast, boasts seven churches, and believers populate other towns north and south, as well as some of the tiny villages nestled in verdant fields hugging the Nile.

In Damascus, Syria, one church's huge neon sign boldly proclaims Yesua Noor Al Alam (Jesus, Light of the World). The presence of this and six other evangelical congregations shows that the climate is considerably more permissive than when the apostle Paul had to sneak out of town in a basket. A revival is taking place among Orthodox and Catholic churches in Syria and Iraq, and in Iraq, at least five evangelical churches dot the map.

Still, Middle Eastern evangelicals remain a minority of a minority. Believers in the ancient branches—the Copts, Syrians, Greek Orthodox, Armenians, Roman Catholics, Maronites, Nestorians, Assyrians, Chaldeans, and others—make up only about 20 million of the 450 million inhabitants of the Middle East and North Africa region. Evangelicals number only a million.

As a small minority, the churches of the Middle East face three principle risks due to the recent political changes in Iraq.

1. Increasing Intolerance Christians remain relatively safe under autocracies that allow some measure of discrimination while generally protecting Christians. Arab rulers are more interested in preserving their power than pursuing a religious agenda. They want to maintain social order—keep crime rates, political opposition, and social unrest to a minimum. If Islamist extremists start a campaign of violence against Christians, the average Middle Eastern autocrat often intervenes to protect them.

The generally good relations between most evangelicals and their Muslim neighbors in the Arab world prevail thanks to their shared ethnic and national identity (one exception to this is the periodic clashes between Egyptian Muslims and Copts). And in most countries Christians are free to practice their faith, though governments differ on whether to allow church plants, with Egypt being very restrictive, Syria less so.

All Middle Eastern nations prohibit Christians from sharing the gospel, yet interfaith dialogue does exist. In some countries, Christians can even legally distribute religious literature, provided they sell it.

With Arab regimes firmly entrenched, the status quo is likely to persist for some time. But if democracy does become the norm in the Middle East, some countries could elect Islamist regimes, which tend to repress Christians. Throughout the Middle East, whenever Islamist parties have stood for election they have usually won. And the Islamist parties are becoming more popular.

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April 2005, Vol. 49, No. 4